Scenario Planning

Making Resilient Decisions

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." No one's quite sure who said it first, but I will root for my own club and go with fellow physicist Neils Bohr. Climate and energy policy decisions often revolve around 10-year, 20-year or longer timelines and no one is quite sure what the world will be like that far down the line. So, we have to contextualize our decisions in a spectrum of possibilities. Choose the policies and practices that are most resilient to the unknowns that those policies, once set, will encounter.

The Scenario Planning Workshop

I can lead your organization or team through a scenario planning workshop tailored to fit the decisions you need to be making, whether those are about climate and energy policy or otherwise. I follow the method of Wilson & Ralston, which on the one hand follows a clear, well-thought-out logic but on the other hand features nonlinear, intuitive processes that support an unusually deep and creative approach to considering the unknown.

A scenario planning workshop requires team members to be at a single site for a minimum of one day, and can benefit strongly from even longer commitments. It's not for the faint of heart, but well worth the effort. Besides underlying robust corporate and policy strategies, it's a great team building exercise built on the meaning of your work rather than on pop-psychology fluff.